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Republican Jolly wins crucial Florida bellwether special election

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  • #1

    Republican Jolly wins crucial Florida bellwether special election

    Republican David Jolly defeated Democrat Alex Sink in the special election to fill Florida’s 13th district on Tuesday night, delivering a stinging blow to Democrats that underscores their vulnerability to ObamaCare attacks.

    With all precincts reporting, Jolly topped Sink 48.4 percent to 46.5 percent, winning by 3,417 votes. Libertarian Lucas Overby took nearly 5 percent of the vote.

    Sink’s loss in the race to succeed the late Rep. Bill Young (R-Fla.) was seen by Republicans as evidence the political winds are blowing hard against Democrats in their uphill pursuit of the 17 seats they’ll need to take back the House.
    Access to this page has been denied
    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/200523-republican-jolly-wins-crucial-florida-special-election
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    Before someone shows up with the DCCC talking point:



    This is not a "Heavily Republican District."

    Sink was up by 7-9 points last month.

    RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Florida 13th District Special - Jolly vs. Sink

    Sink raised $2.5 Million while Jolly only raised $1.04 Million.

    Florida District 13 2014 Race
    http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?cycle=2014&id=FL13&spec=Y
    OpenSecrets.org coverage of the Florida District 13 election held in 2014


    Sink won this district when she ran for Governor in 2010 and when she was elected CFO in 2006.

    Alex Sink, Democrats' best-known option, will run for the House in Florida special election

    Obama won this district in 2008 and 2012.

    Florida's 13th District: The Most Important Election in America (Tonight)
    "Faith is nothing but a firm assent of the mind : which, if it be regulated, as is our duty, cannot be afforded to anything but upon good reason, and so cannot be opposite to it."
    -John Locke

    "It's all been melded together into one giant, authoritarian, leftist scream."
    -Newman
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Originally posted by scott View Post

    This is not a "Heavily Republican District."
    It's a protected and gerrymandered Republican district which exists because a deal was struck to create a protected Democratic district next door. Approximately 25,000 largely black and democratic voters in Pinellas Point are excluded from the otherwise compact district and vote in a congressional district that is culturally and geographically disconnected.

    So it is rather remarkable that Jolly won with such a small margin. But close only counts in horseshoes. In my opinion, it's not the Obamacare blather Jolly relentlessly engaged in , Sink gave away essential male middle class votes by not staining up for the 2nd Amendment and immigration enforcement.
    The year's at the spring
    And day's at the morn;
    Morning's at seven;
    The hill-side's dew-pearled;
    The lark's on the wing;
    The snail's on the thorn:
    God's in his heaven—
    All's right with the world!

    Comment

    • #3
      Originally posted by Novaheart View Post
      It's a protected and gerrymandered Republican district which exists because a deal was struck to create a protected Democratic district next door. Approximately 25,000 largely black and democratic voters in Pinellas Point are excluded from the otherwise compact district and vote in a congressional district that is culturally and geographically disconnected.

      So it is rather remarkable that Jolly won with such a small margin. But close only counts in horseshoes. In my opinion, it's not the Obamacare blather Jolly relentlessly engaged in , Sink gave away essential male middle class votes by not staining up for the 2nd Amendment and immigration enforcement.
      Not buying it. The Republicans did not suddenly move into this district in the last 16 months. This was a referendum on Obamafail, and the people spoke loudly.
      It's been ten years since that lonely day I left you
      In the morning rain, smoking gun in hand
      Ten lonely years but how my heart, it still remembers
      Pray for me, momma, I'm a gypsy now

      Comment

      • #4
        Originally posted by Adam View Post
        Not buying it. The Republicans did not suddenly move into this district in the last 16 months. This was a referendum on Obamafail, and the people spoke loudly.
        What aren't you buying?

        Bill Young (Republican) held that seat from 1971 to 2013.
        Pinellas County is almost evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats, however the 13th Congressional district deliberately excludes the southern tip of Pinellas County where the highest concentration of blacks and democrats is. Fact.

        The fact that Obama won Pinellas County twice is irrelevant to this discussion because the gerrymandered portion of the county was voting with the county in the national election.

        That's OK, Jolly will do himself in. He's a corrupt piece of crap. He thinks he just retired to Congress. I wouldn't bet money on him being there for very long.
        The year's at the spring
        And day's at the morn;
        Morning's at seven;
        The hill-side's dew-pearled;
        The lark's on the wing;
        The snail's on the thorn:
        God's in his heaven—
        All's right with the world!

        Comment

        • #5
          Originally posted by Novaheart View Post
          What aren't you buying?

          Bill Young (Republican) held that seat from 1971 to 2013.
          Pinellas County is almost evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats, however the 13th Congressional district deliberately excludes the southern tip of Pinellas County where the highest concentration of blacks and democrats is. Fact.

          The fact that Obama won Pinellas County twice is irrelevant to this discussion because the gerrymandered portion of the county was voting with the county in the national election.

          That's OK, Jolly will do himself in. He's a corrupt piece of crap. He thinks he just retired to Congress. I wouldn't bet money on him being there for very long.
          That makes no sense. Sink won this district twice. This was a referendum on her support for ACA and Obama. Without the massive DNC machine flying in all the activists to scrounge for every last voter she couldn't win. This was an election that gave a clear choice and your girl's ideas lost.
          "Faith is nothing but a firm assent of the mind : which, if it be regulated, as is our duty, cannot be afforded to anything but upon good reason, and so cannot be opposite to it."
          -John Locke

          "It's all been melded together into one giant, authoritarian, leftist scream."
          -Newman

          Comment

          • #6
            And then there's this spectacular display of stupid on parade:


            “Republican special interest groups poured in millions to hold onto a Republican congressional district that they’ve comfortably held for nearly 60 years. Tonight, Republicans fell short of their normal margin in this district because the agenda they are offering voters has a singular focus that a majority of voters oppose: repealing the Affordable Care Act that would return us to the same old broken health care system.”


            You can always tell that you're right when you see that Debbie Stupidwoman-Schultz is trying to twist reality out of existence.


            Republicans "underperformed" in yesterday's election about like the Seahawks "underperformed" in the Super Bowl.
            It's been ten years since that lonely day I left you
            In the morning rain, smoking gun in hand
            Ten lonely years but how my heart, it still remembers
            Pray for me, momma, I'm a gypsy now

            Comment

            • #7
              So many of the articles about this election, have tied the republican win to obamacare. I don't know how one could honestly say that it didn't mattered. Also, didn't a libertarian siphon off 5% of the vote? He wasn't a centrist or independent so I doubt that most of that would have gone to the democrat.

              Sink had the big dawg come in to campaign for her. She also had the name recognition being elected Florida’s chief financial officer in 2006 and then her party’s gubernatorial nominee in 2010..in which she won this same district.

              Sink was the perfectly crafted democrat that was crowned to win this special election and there was every reason to believe that she was going to do it. She outspent her republican opponent 3 to 1 who was bruised from a contentious primary fight and she spouted the same old, same old vitriol of labeling Jolly an "extremist" while saying he was going to do away with Social Security and gut medicare. Still wondering why they didn't go the-war-on-women route but I haven't seen anything to say that they did. Bill Clinton campaigning for her could explain that.
              May we raise children who love the unloved things - the dandelion, the worm, the spiderlings.
              Children who sense the rose needs the thorn and run into rainswept days the same way they turn towards the sun...
              And when they're grown and someone has to speak for those who have no voice,
              may they draw upon that wilder bond, those days of tending tender things and be the one.

              Comment

              • #8
                An article before the election and before the narrative changed:

                The Race Democrats Can’t Afford to Lose
                May we raise children who love the unloved things - the dandelion, the worm, the spiderlings.
                Children who sense the rose needs the thorn and run into rainswept days the same way they turn towards the sun...
                And when they're grown and someone has to speak for those who have no voice,
                may they draw upon that wilder bond, those days of tending tender things and be the one.

                Comment

                • #9
                  Originally posted by scott View Post
                  http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/...ecial-election



                  Before someone shows up with the DCCC talking point:



                  This is not a "Heavily Republican District."

                  Sink was up by 7-9 points last month.

                  RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Florida 13th District Special - Jolly vs. Sink

                  Sink raised $2.5 Million while Jolly only raised $1.04 Million.

                  Florida District 13 2014 Race
                  http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?cycle=2014&id=FL13&spec=Y
                  OpenSecrets.org coverage of the Florida District 13 election held in 2014


                  Sink won this district when she ran for Governor in 2010 and when she was elected CFO in 2006.

                  Alex Sink, Democrats' best-known option, will run for the House in Florida special election

                  Obama won this district in 2008 and 2012.

                  Florida's 13th District: The Most Important Election in America (Tonight)
                  Sure, "heavily Republican" is spin. So is "crucial" and "bellweather." But the spending numbers you mention are intentional selective blindness. Outside groups far outspent both campaigns by a factor of three.

                  How expensive was this race?

                  Outside groups spent $4.2 million opposing Sink, and $3.5 million opposing Jolly. Outside groups backing the candidates were rarer -- $225,000 went toward supporting Sink, and $804,000 toward supporting Jolly. The campaigns themselves haven't spent quite as much -- $1.6 million for Sink, and $859,000 for Jolly. Sink has $789,000 more on hand than Jolly. The National Republican Congressional Committee and National Democratic Congressional Committee have been the biggest spenders overall, each flooding the race with over $2 million -- perhaps not surprising given that many in the media are coiled and ready to see the race as an augur for the rest of the election season.
                  Democrats spent about $5.4 million on ad buys alone, while Republicans spent $4.5 million.
                  Add that up, and you'll find that about $5.8 million was spent on Jolly's behalf versus $5.3 million on Sink's behalf.
                  Enjoy.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Jolly campaigned for outright repeal of Obamacare, Sink promised to "fix" it in unspecified ways.
                    "I think actually, Candy, that Democrats will be able to run on Obamacare as an advantage leading into the 2014 election." - Democratic National Committee chair Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL), Nov. 10, 2013
                    May we raise children who love the unloved things - the dandelion, the worm, the spiderlings.
                    Children who sense the rose needs the thorn and run into rainswept days the same way they turn towards the sun...
                    And when they're grown and someone has to speak for those who have no voice,
                    may they draw upon that wilder bond, those days of tending tender things and be the one.

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Michele View Post
                      So many of the articles about this election, have tied the republican win to obamacare. I don't know how one could honestly say that it didn't mattered.
                      What was Sink's role in passing or implementing Obamacare? She had none. The republican spin is that Jolly's repeal message is a winner, so now all the Republicans are gonna run on repeal. Again. And repeal won't happen. Again.
                      Enjoy.

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Norm dePlume View Post
                        What was Sink's role in passing or implementing Obamacare? She had none. The republican spin is that Jolly's repeal message is a winner, so now all the Republicans are gonna run on repeal. Again. And repeal won't happen. Again.
                        Yes, I saw that mentioned in one of the articles I read about Sink. But it doesn't matter. She still embraced the program with weak, non-specific words about reforming it..and she backed Obama which meant she would have voted for it.

                        The republican spin is that Jolly's repeal message is a winner, so now all the Republicans are gonna run on repeal.
                        All republicans? Source?

                        It's going to be hard for the democrat House members who are in a competitive district or a democrat incumbent senator up for re-election in a moderate to conservative state, to win with their "advantage" of running on obamacare when they did actually vote on it. Republicans don't have to run on repealing obamacare..they just need to hang it around the necks of their opponents..along with Obama, of course.
                        May we raise children who love the unloved things - the dandelion, the worm, the spiderlings.
                        Children who sense the rose needs the thorn and run into rainswept days the same way they turn towards the sun...
                        And when they're grown and someone has to speak for those who have no voice,
                        may they draw upon that wilder bond, those days of tending tender things and be the one.

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Michele View Post
                          All republicans? Source?

                          It's going to be hard for the democrat House members who are in a competitive district or a democrat incumbent senator up for re-election in a moderate to conservative state, to win with their "advantage" of running on obamacare when they did actually vote on it. Republicans don't have to run on repealing obamacare..they just need to hang it around the necks of their opponents..along with Obama, of course.
                          That's a prediction. My prediction. You want a source besides me? Try the future.

                          "Repeal Obamacare" was the big Republican touchstone in election 2012. It looks like they're going back to that well again.

                          Nobody hung Obamacare on Sink's neck. As I pointed out, she had no role in passing or implementing it. The issue in this race was "fix it" (per Sink) versus "repeal it" (per Jolly).
                          Enjoy.

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Michele View Post
                            "I think actually, Candy, that Democrats will be able to run on Obamacare as an advantage leading into the 2014 election." - Democratic National Committee chair Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL), Nov. 10, 2013
                            Man, that woman is some special kind of stupid.
                            It's been ten years since that lonely day I left you
                            In the morning rain, smoking gun in hand
                            Ten lonely years but how my heart, it still remembers
                            Pray for me, momma, I'm a gypsy now

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Norm dePlume View Post
                              Sure, "heavily Republican" is spin. So is "crucial" and "bellweather." But the spending numbers you mention are intentional selective blindness. Outside groups far outspent both campaigns by a factor of three.



                              Add that up, and you'll find that about $5.8 million was spent on Jolly's behalf versus $5.3 million on Sink's behalf.
                              "Selective blindness"

                              I didn't comment on the spending because I didn't think it was relevant. The fundraising was important because the spin from the left is that Jolly had this in a walk. That's patently untrue.

                              Also, the numbers you found are inaccurate, it only lists the money spent as of February 19th. Are you honestly going to say that Sink held onto a surplus of almost $1 Million?

                              That's total raised and spent for Jolly who also had a primary while Sink had no primary.


                              The total spending on Sink's behalf was much higher than you say.
                              "Faith is nothing but a firm assent of the mind : which, if it be regulated, as is our duty, cannot be afforded to anything but upon good reason, and so cannot be opposite to it."
                              -John Locke

                              "It's all been melded together into one giant, authoritarian, leftist scream."
                              -Newman

                              Comment

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