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The Significance of Chris Christie's Win
It's a bit surprising how blase much of the media seems to be about New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's likely win in Tuesday's election. While it is somewhat natural that attention would drift instead toward the Virginia governor’s race, given where the D.C. press tends to reside and the contest’s relative closeness, the magnitude of Christie’s expected victory really is a big deal. A lot of analysts, including this one from time to time, have overlooked its potential significance.
To put this in perspective, look at the chart at the bottom of the page. It lists the performance, excluding third parties, of every Republican to run statewide in New Jersey from 1945 to 2013, comprising 58 races.
If Christie matches his current numbers in the RCP Average, he would have the fourth-best showing of any Republican in the state in the post-World War II era. Only Sen. Clifford Case in his 1972 re-election, Dwight Eisenhower in the 1956 presidential re-election, and Gov. Tom Kean Sr. in his 1985 re-election put up better numbers.
Three factors make this even more impressive. First, the state’s demographics have pushed it in a more Democratic direction over the past 50 years, as more Hispanics and African-Americans have moved there. The Garden State is also, however, an example of the limitations of the “demographics†argument: It was filled with minorities 50 years ago, but those groups were Irish, Italians, and central Europeans. Today we just call them “whites.†Republicans fared poorly in the state 40 years ago as well, so perhaps minorities haven’t made New Jersey more difficult for the GOP; we’ve just switched our definition of minorities.
It's a bit surprising how blase much of the media seems to be about New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's likely win in Tuesday's election. While it is somewhat natural that attention would drift instead toward the Virginia governor’s race, given where the D.C. press tends to reside and the contest’s relative closeness, the magnitude of Christie’s expected victory really is a big deal. A lot of analysts, including this one from time to time, have overlooked its potential significance.
To put this in perspective, look at the chart at the bottom of the page. It lists the performance, excluding third parties, of every Republican to run statewide in New Jersey from 1945 to 2013, comprising 58 races.
If Christie matches his current numbers in the RCP Average, he would have the fourth-best showing of any Republican in the state in the post-World War II era. Only Sen. Clifford Case in his 1972 re-election, Dwight Eisenhower in the 1956 presidential re-election, and Gov. Tom Kean Sr. in his 1985 re-election put up better numbers.
Three factors make this even more impressive. First, the state’s demographics have pushed it in a more Democratic direction over the past 50 years, as more Hispanics and African-Americans have moved there. The Garden State is also, however, an example of the limitations of the “demographics†argument: It was filled with minorities 50 years ago, but those groups were Irish, Italians, and central Europeans. Today we just call them “whites.†Republicans fared poorly in the state 40 years ago as well, so perhaps minorities haven’t made New Jersey more difficult for the GOP; we’ve just switched our definition of minorities.
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